The Chinese economy was mixed in October, with surprising strong growth in retail sales, though additional constraints on the real estate sector continued.
The National Bureau of Statistics said retail sales jumped 4.8% from a year earlier in October, compared with the 3.8% Reuters forecast rise. The figure compares to a 3.2% expansion the previous month in September, which indicated that recent stimulus measures by the government were going to continue boosting consumer spending. Industrial production rose by 5.3%, undershooting the analysts’ estimated 5.6% growth.
In contrast, the real estate sector remains under significant stress. Investment in real estate declined 10.3% for the January to October period compared with the same period in 2023, a worsening of the 10.1% drop reported through September. That marks the sharpest drop since 2021 and points to the stubborn declines in the property market despite authorities’ efforts.
It’s one of the toughest sectors, but the authorities are keen on stabilizing it,” said Fu Linghui, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, in a press conference. Investment in real estate will be stable and show slight recovery in the next 12 to 18 months, according to Bruce Pang, chief economist at JLL. On the sales front, new property sales improved in October. In October, new property sales decline narrowed down to 20.9% year-on-year from the 22.7% that had surfaced in September.
On the employment side, the urban unemployment rate edged slightly lower to 5% in October from 5.1% in September. The youths’ unemployment situation still remains quite daunting and eased to 17.6% in September from a record high of 18.8% in August.
These improvements notwithstanding, according to officials, there are economic risks across the board, both at home and abroad. Policymakers were said to have indicated that measures to provide stimulus would be needed to sustain growth to around 5% annually.
