Due to rising demand for semiconductors and AI-enabled smartphones and laptops, it raises the risk of another global chip shortage, following the not-so-recent semiconductor shortage that was triggered when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted supplies and created increased demand in consumer electronics as a by-product of changed work habits across the globe.
Technology leaders have been on a frenzied acquisition mode, scooping up graphics processing units that happen to be mostly those of Nvidia, the company that fuels the behemoths of large AI models powering applications such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Coinciding with this is the new chips by Qualcomm that power the AI applications on smartphones and on personal computers, reducing dependence on cloud computing. Samsung and Microsoft have already unveiled AI-enabled devices.
Anne Hoecker, head of Bain’s Americas technology practice, cautions that surging demand for GPUs and the introduction of AI-enabled devices threatens to strain the semiconductor supply chain. She said, “The increasing demand for GPUs has caused shortages in some segments of the semiconductor supply chain.” Hoecker also pointed out that if demand for GPUs continues to grow and go up, along with the onslaught of AI-enabled devices, this may accelerate PC refresh cycles and pose extreme widespread supply constraints for semiconductors.
Difficult to forecast consumer reaction to AI-enabled devices, Bain admits that the complexity of the semiconductor supply chain is easily threatened by a rise in demand of more than 20%, which may cut off chip supplies. “The global AI explosion could easily exceed that threshold, creating vulnerable chokepoints throughout the supply chain,” the report concludes.
Geopolitical factors too are susceptible to semiconductor supply as nations consider semiconductors strategic technology. The U.S. has imposed export controls intended to curtail China‘s access to top-tier chips but simultaneously promoting domestic capacity. According to Bain, geopolitical tensions, trade restrictions, and decoupling of supply chains from China further complicate semiconductor supply vulnerabilities with potential delays in factory construction and material shortages.
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